@misc{oai:iwate-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00008970, author = {澤口, 勇雄 and 佐々木, 俊一 and 立川, 史郎}, month = {Mar}, note = {岩手県における松枯れ木分布の特徴をGISにより解析し,松枯れ被害の危険性を示す松枯れ判定マップの作成と危険地拡大の温暖化シミュレーションを試みた。松枯れ被害発生には有効温量,降水量,標高,道路からの距離,植生との関係が認められた。松枯れ被害発生予測の判別分析によると,危険性を上げる要因として有効温量に降水量が次いだ。松枯れ判定マップによると,危険性の高い地域は北上川沿いの内陸部と沿岸南部に集中し,青森県境の二戸市周辺や沿岸部の宮古市付近の閉伊川流域などで危険性の高い地域が存在した。温暖化シミュレーションによると,準平年値で岩手県土の69.2%が危険なしとされたが,危険なしとされた面積は3℃上昇で19.6%,6℃上昇で2.2%に低下し,6℃の上昇で県土のほぼ全てが危険地に含まれた。, This study analyzed the characteristics of the distribution of pine wilt disease in Iwate Prefecture using a geographic information system (GIS). Based on this analysis, we created a damage risk map. In addition, We simulated the spread of pine wilt disease in Iwate Prefecture with warming. The occurrence of pine damage was significantly related to the effective cumulative temperature, precipitation, altitude, distance from the nearest road, and vegetation. Discriminant analysis revealed that the effective cumulative temperature and annual precipitation were effective damage assessment factors. The damage risk areas of pine wilt disease were densely distributed along the Kitakami River and southern Sanriku coast. Additional areas of grave danger were distributed around Ninohe City at the border with Aomori Prefecture and along the Hei River near Miyako City. In the warming simulation at the average temperature, no danger zones accounted for 69.2% of the area of Iwate Prefecture. However, 19.6% and 97.8% of the area were classified as at risk of pine wilt disease when the temperature increased by 3 and 6℃, respectively.}, title = {岩手県における松枯れ被害分布の特徴解析による被害判定マップの作成}, year = {2009} }